Tales of the Walled Garden

I think we should coin the equivalent of the famous "Don't Fight the Fed" slogan from the finance world. The concept, as I understand it, is that the central banking powers of the Federal Reserve are so potent that it never makes sense for an individual investor to try and move the market in the opposite direction from where the Fed is pushing it. The overwhelming correct strategy is to move in the same direction as the Fed, and thereby profit.

I tend to think in the online world the saying should be "Don't Fight the Internet". Given enough time, anyone who bets against the general direction in which the Internet is moving will lose (and often lose expensively). Unless there is some sort of intervention in the form of catastrophe or massive government action (which doesn't seem terribly likely - why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?) I don't see this changing any time soon.

The Internet favors data abundance, not scarcity. All information, including digital media, is data. Businesses that have models based on data scarcity (the music industry is the obvious one, but some people at Microsoft may fear it's going to catch them as well) are in trouble - given enough time.

The Internet places a premium on data relevance. There's a ton of data out there, but how do you find the right data for you? Companies that answer that question (through search, through social networks etc) prosper. Companies that take a one size fits all approach (newspapers) falter.

The Internet favors openness. The ability to move around from one provider to the next - anyone can send or receive an email, anyone can put up a website, anyone can sell or checkout online. Historical attempts to compete against the entire Internet (such as CompuServe, or the original MSN) have always failed. They're not open enough.

Right now there are social networks (FaceBook, MySpace, LinkedIn...well all of them really...) that all have their little walled gardens. Their own networks. They don't seem to notice that there's already a big network there - it's called the Internet.

Social networking is very rapidly maturing into another application layer for the Internet. People are going to want to maintain profiles in one place and use them anywhere. People are going to want to have friends who are based out of different social networks. Perhaps I'm on FaceBook, but I'd like to friend someone based out of MySpace. People want that to happen, and when I say people, I mean the Internet. It didn't work for CompuServe or MSN, and its not going to work for FaceBook or LinkedIn. Don't fight the Internet.