Chrome
Google’s announcement of its Chrome web browser is a potential game-changer in the browser industry. But the team feeling the impact will be at the Mozilla Foundation, not Microsoft.
Internet Explorer remains the dominant Web browser and there’s little reason to doubt its continued majority presence. Between personal users who are content with a brand they trust (Microsoft, if not directly IE) and companies whose installed bases are running complete Windows environments, the inclination to shift practices is not present. It’s why Netscape died quickly and why Firefox, despite all its accolades and encouragements, still has less than 20% market share. The same goes for Safari, whose usage rate closely mirrors Apple’s market share as a whole. Most users are content with what they’re given, so long as it works.
Instead of another great user migration, Google will see its first million or so downloads coming from the same advocates who swear by Firefox. Mozilla’s market share will dip accordingly. Don’t be surprised if the browser split, currently 74/19/6 for IE/Safari/FF, spins down to, say, 73/13/5/8 for IE/Safari/FF/Chrome next year. Firefox’s gains could slow by a third if Chrome is any good.
But Google is taking the long view with this project. With the continued splintering of access between desktops, phones, gaming systems and other devices, Google is likely working on a fully platform-agnostic browser. Much as Apple has done with Safari on the iPhone, Chrome will be easily inserted into Treos, Playstations, and anything else requiring web support. Over the next few years, Google could develop a strong presence in the market. This is where Microsoft, And Apple, will ultimately have to pay attention.