Building for present vs. future usage
We often state internally that “this year is the year of mobile.” We’ve been saying it since 2007–“2008 will be the year of mobile!”–and with the continued insurgence of Apple’s devices, 2011 may be the year we’re finally not ahead of the curve.
Part of predicting mobile, though, is in properly forecasting and anticipating use. In just over a year, our clients’ sites have seen mobile traffic trend from 1-2% of visits to 5-10% or more. (One colleague I’ve spoken with has a remarkable 32% mobile share on his informational website.) How well could that have been foreseen, and at what level is mobile adjustment important?
I’m on the record as saying mobile accessibility has become crucial, not unlike supporting legacy systems on the trailing edge of site traffic. I rallied for Mac support when Apple had 2.5% of the market; I insisted on supporting Netscape 4.7 until Netscape itself stopped supporting it; I forced Ai’s developers to accommodate IE 6 as recently as last year. With mobile traffic surging toward and past 10% of total online usage, having a site not load in iOS or Android is simply not an option.
However, that doesn’t mean the world is flocking in its entirety to mobile. Today eMarketer shared great mobile usage statistics that pegged 30% of Americans logging on via mobile more than once a week. Yet that same graph also noted that the majority of respondents, 58%, don’t use the mobile Internet at all. And two-fifths of that group doesn’t even have a web-enabled mobile device.
While we all push toward a mobile world, taking the late majority into account is just as important as embracing the early adopters. The greatest retail app in the world won’t make a difference if its target demographic won’t download it. Planning for the future, however, will.
Give the leading segment the access and utility it craves while maintaining a more traditional presence for everyone else. That will ensure across-the-board customer satisfaction–and position a site for the inevitable shift to a mobile majority.