The news that Yahoo is shutting down Geocities got me curious about how Yahoo did on the deal. A decade later, was Yahoo right to make the acqusition in the first place?
I did some research, some math, and a bunch of IM brainstorming with Tristan Louis and came up with the following.
The basics: Yahoopaid $2.87 billion in stock for Geocities in May 1999 after announcing a deal that January at $3.57 billion. Adjusted for splits and inflation, that's the equivalent of $1.54 billion in Yahoo stock today, or $1.2 billion in 1999 dollars--a far more reasonable figure than the dot-com-inflated sums that Yahoo and Geocities swapped. Considering that the transactions were all on paper, the deal already makes some sense. (Tristan's initial calculation put the value of the 1999 stock at $155 million--a steal!--but that may have been done without factoring in Yahoo's three stock splits.)
But did those billions pay off?
First, consider direct revenue. Geocities had $7.82 million in revenue the final quarter before the acquisition. Taking into account traffic trends for the years following, and estimating revenue based on industry flows, the total revenue from Geocities display advertising--for 10 years--comes to around $320 million (not inflation-adjusted). Not a lot compared to the $2.87 billion purchase price, but at least Yahoo got back 10% of its stock swap in cash.
Yahoo Geocities also had a premium model, with Plus members paying $4.95 a month and Advantage members $19.95. Yahoo never released membership specifics, but we can generously estimate that 1% of Geocities' 14 million members signed up for a larger model, with a small segment going to Advantage. That program still exists, which means there's some incremental revenue even now. Geocities Plus probably pulled in more than $8 million in its peak year, which extrapolates to roughly $60 million total since its introduction.
We can assume Yahoo Geocities had all sorts of marketing partnerships, each of which generated as much as $250,000 per initiative above and beyond basic ad revenue. Let's generously peg this value at $20 million total, mostly during Geocities' peak usage years.
So that comes to $400 million in revenue. Decent money, but far from profitable on its own.
Then let's consider the traffic implications. In today's world, the traffic figures from the 1990s are laughable: Geocities was the fifth busiest site on the Internet in June 1997... and four months after that they signed up their millionth user. Then again, in the era of rapid growth, though, paying for traffic made sense. By the time the sale closed, Geocities was up to 3.5 million user sites and 19 million unique users.
From that angle, the sale paid some robust early dividends. Yahoo's traffic increased by nearly two-thirds following the acquisiton. That's a lot of new eyeballs seeing the Y! and becoming familiar with Yahoo's name and, ultimately, its other services.
Yet Geocities peaked in 2002 and has been in slow decline ever since. After hitting 27.7 million in March 2002, the numbers kept dwindling: to18.9 million in October 2006, then 15.1 million in March 2008, down to 11.5 million unique users last month. So the long term didn't play out perfectly, thanks to more robust social networks superseding Geocities' early style.
With all this hindsight, it is doubtful that Geocities can be called a profitable acquisition. It probably can be considered a break-even, though, given the number of different revenue streams and added Yahoo network traffic the site brought.
Geocities is also notable for what it did for Yahoo off the balance sheet. The bold acquisition of a social site, and its subsequent integration with Yahoo, paved the way for future site aggregations. Yahoo's purchases of Flickr and del.icio.us show Yahoo's continued commitment to community, and its willingness to assimilate other networks with its own (albeit with varying degrees of success).
Indeed, Geocities can be considered a hallmark of Yahoo's style and a bellwether in its corporate history. For better or worse, that alone makes the acquisition a solid one.
Labels:
acquisitions,
business,
geocities,
yahoo