Ecommerce predictions
This morning I enjoyed re-reading Clifford Stoll’s 1995 Newsweek piece, Why Web Won’t Be Nirvana. While 15 years later most of his observations on information overload and the lack of content curation abound, how delightfully wrong he was in predicting the failure of “cyberbusiness.”
Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping—just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obselete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet—which there isn’t—the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.
It appears our industry has done a fine job addressing all of Stoll’s concerns, save for thankfully not making stores obsolete (and arguably positioning great multi-channel retailers even stronger because of their web businesses). We certainly can point and click for great deals. I don’t remember ordering an airline ticket in the last 10 years and not doing it online. OpenTable can almost always snag a last minute reservation for me at the latest NYC hotspot. While their usability leaves a great deal to be desired, web-based contract negotiation tools drive billions in global procurement.
And speaking of a “trustworthy way to send money over the Internet,” while we haven’t yet found nirvana, in 2009, $209.6 billion was spent by consumers typing credit card numbers into a white box on a website. People trust sending their money over the Internet.
Sure, we lack nuanced salespeople in our digital world. That saleswoman who tells me I look fabulous in that suit will never lose her job to ecommerce. But we sure do come close to the same results. On more than one occasion we’ve all experienced that bizarrely efficient and shockingly accurate “others who purchased” recommendation, and went for it. Dynamic personalization is the salesperson of the future, and she’s being implemented today in almost all of our modern ecommerce work.
It sure is easy to criticize Stoll with the 20/20 vision of hindsight, and most unfair not to offer ecommerce predictions for 2011 and beyond of my own. Stay tuned to this page in the coming weeks.





